Now that we’ve moved into September, I can’t help but begin thinking about the coming fall and winter. (I’m looking for cooler weather. Wistful thinking, I know, but I can’t help it.) What’s winter going to be like this year? And are there any ways to know before it arrives?
Early Weather Predictions
Long before NOAA and modern meteorology, men predicted the weather by observing the world around them. They linked the natural events they witnessed to meteorological conditions, then created quaint weather proverbs to describe them. Sometimes these cause-and-effect relationships were accurate. Sometimes not.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, first published in 1792, is the oldest consecutively published weather forecast. It predicts seasonal temperatures and precipitation using a formula developed by the Almanac’s founding editor. That formula, and the identity of the person currently using it, are closely guarded company secrets.
Did You Know…
- The Farmer’s Almanac weather predictions are made two years in advance. (Impressive, especially considering trained meteorologists sometimes have problems predicting weather two days in advance.)
- Over the last two hundred plus years, the Farmer’s Almanac weather forecasts are said to have been accurate about 80-85% of the time.
Weather and the Army
In 1883, the American War Department’s Chief Signal Officer, Brigadier Major General W.B. Hazen, commissioned a report on popular weather proverbs and prediction methods used across the country. Army 1st Lt. HHC Dunwoody compiled the report, and endeavored to include every weather prediction method or saying he could find—from animals, plants, and nature in general, to planets, stars, sun, and the moon.
Did You Know…
- Dunwoody made sure to include a note at the beginning of his report, assuring the reader the Army didn’t use these methods to forecast weather. Instead, the Army’s forecasts were based on meteorologists-approved techniques.
- As Chief of the Army Signal Corps, part of Hazen’s responsibility included the development of meteorological science in the Army Signal Corps.
Weather-Predicting Animals
You’ve probably heard at least one adage about animals predicting the weather. Turns out there’s truth in some of these old sayings. According to the experts, animals are very in tune with their surroundings. They can detect subtle changes in atmospheric conditions, like humidity levels, wind patterns, and barometric pressure. Their keen hearing and smell can also warn them of approaching storms.
Here are three weather-predicting animals to ponder…
Cows: The old saying about cows lying down before it rains is true. Because cows lose heat when standing, the pre-rain cooled air prompts them to lie down on a dry spot to stay warm. Cows also become restless and antsy when the air pressure changes.
Sheep: One weather proverb states: “If sheep huddle up in a tight group, expect rain or snow.” True. Animals often crowd together—trying to shield each other—when bad weather is coming.
Frogs: Since frogs breed more successfully after a rain—they need the water for egg-laying—it’s true their mating calls are louder before a rain as they look for a mate.
Did You Know…
- Punxsutawney Phil only has a 39% accuracy rate predicting the weather.
- A Wooly Bear Caterpillar’s body color doesn’t predict how bad the coming winter will be. (Their colors are determined by things like their species, age, and nutrition, not the future weather.)
- The male cricket is a thermometer. A formula, published by a scientist in 1857, explains how the pace at which the cricket chirps can give you ambient temperature. Simply count the number of chirps in 14 seconds and add 40. The result is the approximate outside temperature. (FYI, females can’t make the chirping sound.)
Final Thoughts
Unfortunately for me, both The Farmer’s Almanac and NOAA predict this year’s Texas winter will be a little dryer and slightly warmer than normal. Maybe they’ll be wrong. While I wait, I guess I’ll just have to keep a watch on the local animals to see what other correlations about them and the weather are true.